Sanctir Research Independent research on national security, statecraft, sanctions, export controls, and defense industrial base risk. https://sanctir.com/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Each publication states its own license. Collin B. George https://sanctir.com/principal/ Iran’s Declining Bargaining Range https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/irans-declining-bargaining-range/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper (SSRN 7567138). Why Iran cannot outlast the blockade, the sanctions and the recurring strikes, why a settlement now is worth more to Tehran than a later one, and the legal authority available for each round of the campaign. Drone Threats to Political Leadership https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/drone-threats-to-political-leadership/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper series WP-2026-D. Three papers: small drones are a mature precision weapon, no state can reliably stop one launched close-in over a populated area, and U.S. authority in the National Capital Region leaves the gap open. Hostile State Asset Denial and Settlement Act https://sanctir.com/research/government-legislation/hostile-state-asset-denial-and-settlement-act/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Legislative series LD-2026-02. A discussion draft that puts the confiscation and use of a hostile state’s assets under the control of Congress, with its adversarial review and drafting memorandum. Taliban Financial Accountability and Aid Integrity Act https://sanctir.com/research/government-legislation/taliban-financial-accountability-act/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Legislative discussion draft LD-2026-01. A substitute for H.R. 260 that controls every U.S. dollar bound for Afghanistan, closes the OFAC General License 20 exception, and keeps the Afghan central bank reserves out of Taliban hands by statute. Asymmetric Denial https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/asymmetric-denial/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper (SSRN 7506619). The cost-exchange structure of the blockade phase of the 2026 Iran war, and how it is made and kept favorable to the United States. Denying Chinese Victory https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/denying-chinese-victory/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper (SSRN 7490119). Cost, resource, and military advantages available to the United States against China, 2026–2035. Credit and Power https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/credit-and-power/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper (SSRN 7430978). The decoupling of dollar and Treasury specialness, and why the deciding constraint on American power has become internal. Insulate, Then Press https://sanctir.com/research/statecraft-policy/insulate-then-press/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper (SSRN 7361378). A sequencing framework for U.S. policy toward a structurally declining China. Adversarial-Cost Screening https://sanctir.com/research/export-controls-technology/adversarial-cost-screening/ 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z 2026-10-05T00:00:00Z Working paper SCREEN-01 (SSRN 7252300). A validation framework for export control, sanctions, and supply-chain counterparty programs. Your Subcontractor’s Engineer Does Not Exist https://sanctir.com/research/cybersecurity-attestation/your-subcontractors-engineer-does-not-exist/ 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z Assessment SB-2026-04. What a North Korean placement inside a defense contractor costs a company that did nothing wrong, and what converts it from a victim into a respondent. Cleared Does Not Mean Examined https://sanctir.com/research/threat-finance-sanctions/cleared-does-not-mean-examined/ 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z 2026-08-09T00:00:00Z Assessment SB-2026-03. Why a compliance screening program can pass every audit and still not detect the thing it exists to catch. The Export Rule Controls Your Data. It Never Tells You How to Protect It. https://sanctir.com/research/cybersecurity-attestation/cfr-810-control-set/ 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z Assessment SB-2026-02. Where a cybersecurity obligation actually comes from when an export-control regulation controls your information but prescribes no control set. 10 CFR Part 810, the CUI framework, and why applicability is a contract question. The Deadline Went Away. The Obligations Did Not. https://sanctir.com/research/cybersecurity-attestation/cmmc-phase-2-suspension/ 2026-07-20T00:00:00Z 2026-07-20T00:00:00Z Assessment SB-2026-01. What the July 2026 CMMC Phase II suspension changed, what it did not change, and what defense contractors still owe under their DFARS cybersecurity representations.