Decision support for national security and economic statecraft.
Structured analysis and advisory support across threat finance, export controls, sanctions, strategic sourcing, and cybersecurity — built for organizations and counsel operating where regulation, security, and geopolitics intersect.
Identify material risk before it becomes financial loss.
Intelligence, compliance analysis, and decision support for organizations operating across defense, regulated technology, critical supply chains, and international markets.
Preserve eligibility
Maintain access to government contracts, transactions, investments, and regulated markets that a compliance failure would foreclose.
Surface risk early
Identify sanctions, export-control, cybersecurity, ownership, and supply-chain risks before they create liability.
Defensible judgment
Convert fragmented legal, technical, geopolitical, and commercial information into decisions an executive can stand behind.
See it first
Identify regulatory, technological, and geopolitical developments before they are fully priced into the market.
Sanctir applies structured analytic tradecraft to regulatory and security questions that must withstand legal, technical, and executive review.
The practice serves defense and dual-use firms, investment funds, and outside counsel facing questions that cross cybersecurity, export control, sanctions, and supply-chain lines at once — where a single regulatory regime rarely tells the whole story.
Engagements are structured under a documented methodology: dual-axis probability and confidence labeling, tiered evidence standards, explicit statement of limits, and prohibition on advocacy language. The method is published openly, so the reasoning behind an assessment is visible before an engagement begins.
Published research
Working papers, legislative discussion drafts, and assessments on statecraft, sanctions, export controls, and cybersecurity attestation. Each states its governing judgment, its confidence, and its limits. Working papers are also published on SSRN.
What Sanctir helps clients decide
Engagements are organized around decisions, not regulations. Each draws on the same analytic method and, where the question crosses regimes, treats them together rather than in isolation.
Illicit finance and sanctions risk
Where threat-finance and sanctions exposure sits in a counterparty, a transaction, or a portfolio — and what a defensible screening and escalation posture looks like.
Navigate export controls
Whether a commodity, technology, or data flow is controlled, at what level, and how to structure classification, licensing, and deemed-export handling to hold up on review.
Build resilient supply chains
Where sourcing dependency, beneficial ownership, and adversarial exposure concentrate — and which relationships carry risk that financial diligence alone will not surface.
Protect controlled information
Whether cybersecurity posture and documentation actually substantiate what has been attested — and where the gap between claimed and implemented control creates exposure.
Support national security and policy decisions
Structured assessments and expert analysis for counsel, investment committees, and decision-makers who need reasoning that is transparent, sourced, and defensible.
See the dependency before it becomes the exposure.
Supplier relationships carry risk that financial statements and standard diligence do not show: concentration in a single foreign source, beneficial ownership that resolves to a restricted party, a tier-three dependency no one mapped.
Sanctir applies the same node-control and beneficial-ownership methodology used in its sanctions and threat-finance research to commercial sourcing — mapping dependency, ownership, and adversarial exposure across a supply base so that decisions rest on the actual structure, not the org chart.
Explore supply-chain intelligence- Dependency mapping — concentration and single-source risk across tiers
- Beneficial-ownership resolution — who ultimately controls a supplier
- Adversarial exposure — restricted-party and jurisdiction risk in the base
- Sourcing strategy — where to diversify before disruption forces it
How the analysis is built
Assessments apply a documented analytic method drawn from intelligence tradecraft — so a reader can see not just the conclusion, but the reasoning and its limits.
Dual-axis labeling
Likelihood and analytic confidence stated separately and explicitly, never collapsed into a single vague adjective.
Tiered standards
Sources classified by reliability, with the strength of each supporting judgment made visible rather than assumed.
Limits stated, advocacy barred
Each assessment names what it does not cover and what would change the judgment. The work informs a decision; it does not argue for one.
The 2026 Iran war: denial, blockade, and settlement
A standing line of analysis: what the denial campaign against Iran costs each party, whether the exchange favors the United States, and when a settlement is worth more to Tehran than continued resistance.
Iran’s bargaining range is declining.
Iran cannot outlast the blockade, the sanctions and the recurring strikes. Losses that depend on imports persist under blockade, and repairs Iran can make at home must be struck again, so Tehran’s position worsens each month for export revenue, import-dependent plant and the credibility of its missile force. For those assets a settlement now is worth more than a later one. The paper also sets out where the United States’ legal authority is strongest, where it rests on the executive’s own reading, and why no settlement lasts unless Washington makes its offer of relief credible.
Companion paper. Asymmetric Denial — the cost-exchange structure of the blockade phase: favorable against Iran on endurance, unfavorable at coalition level while the contest of the strait is charged to the blockade, and the six measures that decide which way it goes. Read the paper →
How organizations work with Sanctir
Engagements are scoped to the decision at hand — from a single bounded assessment to ongoing advisory and expert support for counsel and investment teams.
A bounded question, answered on a defined timeline
Classification analyses, sanctions counterparty review, cybersecurity attestation defensibility, or a supply-chain dependency map — scoped, priced, and delivered as a discrete work product.
Standing analytic support as conditions change
Retained advisory for organizations navigating live regulatory, sanctions, or sourcing exposure that evolves over time and requires continuity of judgment.
Technical analysis for counsel and decision-makers
Independent expert analysis, structured assessments, and testimony support on cybersecurity, export control, and sanctions questions in litigation and enforcement contexts.
About Sanctir
Sanctir is an independent research and advisory practice operating at the intersection of national security, regulation, and economic statecraft. It serves defense and dual-use firms, investment funds, and outside counsel facing questions that cross cybersecurity, export control, sanctions, and supply-chain lines.
The practice is built on a documented analytic method — dual-axis probability and confidence labeling, tiered evidence standards, explicit statement of limits, and a prohibition on advocacy language — applied in every published assessment under CC BY 4.0. Prospective clients can see how the analysis is constructed before an engagement begins.
Scope is deliberately defined. Sanctir delivers assessments, classification analyses and supporting memoranda, and compliance and diligence analysis — work product structured for audit, legal review, and executive decision-making. It does not provide managed security services or staff augmentation.
Principal
Sanctir is led by Collin B. George, CISSP. His background spans national security analysis, cybersecurity, and export control and sanctions compliance. He is the author of the Sanctir assessment series, published open-source under CC BY 4.0.
Sanctir maintains no current government affiliation. Engagements are subject to conflict-of-interest review. Full principal background ›
Method
- Structured analytic tradecraft
- Dual-axis probability / confidence labeling
- Tiered evidence standards
- Explicit limits and unknowns
Domains
- Threat finance & sanctions
- Export controls (ITAR / EAR)
- Strategic supply-chain intelligence
- Cybersecurity assurance
- National security policy
Research
- Sanctir assessment series (CC BY 4.0)
- Published under CC BY 4.0
- Independent research program
A commitment that does not shift with the political calendar.
Sanctir supports the people who defend the country — in the armed forces, in law enforcement, and in the intelligence community, serving now or having served — and the firms that equip them. That commitment is independent of any administration.
Discuss an engagement
An initial scoping conversation is provided at no charge. Reach out on whichever channel suits the sensitivity of what you need to discuss.
Scoping, engagement questions, and administration. Unencrypted.
Direct line for scoping and time-sensitive matters.
End-to-end encrypted. Preferred for anything specific about your position.
For encrypted written material. Fingerprint ends 51B3 3AF4.
Response time
Initial response within two business days. Scoping proposals within one week of an initial conversation.
Engagement format
Fixed-fee assessments, retained advisory, and hourly expert support. Fully remote, nationwide.
Before you write
Do not send classified, export-controlled, or privileged material. Describe the situation in general terms first; use Signal or PGP for anything specific. Contact does not create an engagement or confidentiality obligation absent a signed agreement.