Research Library

Research organized by domain

Sanctir research addresses one question across five domains: how defense contractors, critical industries, and the institutions that regulate them make better decisions under geopolitical competition and regulatory risk.


Domains

Six research domains

Each domain defines the analytic questions it answers, the methods it applies, and the advisory work it supports. Publications are listed under the domain they belong to.


All Publications

Everything published, newest first

Working papers, legislative discussion drafts, and assessments across all six domains. Working papers are also on the SSRN author page; new publications are announced in the research feed.

Iran’s Declining Bargaining Range

Why Iran cannot outlast the blockade, the sanctions and the recurring strikes, and why a settlement now is worth more to Tehran than a later one. Working paper · Statecraft & Policy
5 Oct 2026

Drone Threats to Political Leadership

Three papers: small drones are a mature precision weapon, no state can reliably stop one launched close-in, and U.S. authority in the National Capital Region leaves the gap open. Working paper series · Statecraft & Policy
5 Oct 2026

Hostile State Asset Denial and Settlement Act

A discussion draft putting the confiscation and use of a hostile state’s assets under congressional control, with its adversarial review and drafting memorandum. Legislative series · Government & Legislation
5 Oct 2026

Taliban Financial Accountability and Aid Integrity Act

A substitute for H.R. 260 that keeps U.S. dollars and the Afghan central bank reserves away from the Taliban. Legislative draft · Government & Legislation
5 Oct 2026

Asymmetric Denial

The cost-exchange structure of the blockade phase of the 2026 Iran war, and how it is made and kept favorable to the United States. Working paper · Statecraft & Policy
21 Sep 2026

Denying Chinese Victory

Cost, resource, and military advantages available to the United States against China, 2026–2035. Working paper · Statecraft & Policy
19 Sep 2026

Credit and Power

The decoupling of dollar and Treasury specialness, and why the deciding constraint on American power has become internal. Working paper · Statecraft & Policy
Aug 2026

Insulate, Then Press

A sequencing framework for U.S. policy toward a structurally declining China. Working paper · Statecraft & Policy
26 Aug 2026

Adversarial-Cost Screening

A validation framework for export control, sanctions, and supply-chain counterparty programs. Working paper · Export Controls & Technology
13 Aug 2026

Your Subcontractor’s Engineer Does Not Exist

What a North Korean placement inside a defense contractor costs a company that did nothing wrong, and what converts it from a victim into a respondent. Assessment SB-2026-04 · Cybersecurity & Attestation
9 Aug 2026

Cleared Does Not Mean Examined

Why a compliance screening program can pass every audit and still not detect the thing it exists to catch. Assessment SB-2026-03 · Threat Finance & Sanctions
9 Aug 2026

The Export Rule Controls Your Data. It Never Tells You How to Protect It.

Where a cybersecurity obligation comes from when the export regulation prescribes none. Assessment SB-2026-02 · Cybersecurity & Attestation
30 Jul 2026

The Deadline Went Away. The Obligations Did Not.

What the July 2026 CMMC Phase II suspension changed, what it did not, and what a contractor remains responsible for. Assessment SB-2026-01 · Cybersecurity & Attestation
20 Jul 2026

Standards

How publications are produced

Every publication declares its type, status, and version. Probability and analytic confidence are labeled on separate axes. Sources are classified by reliability, limitations are stated explicitly, and advocacy language is excluded.

Publications pass documented release and quality review before public release. Once released, each carries a persistent identifier and a formatted citation. The full standard is described on the methodology page.

Working papers are also published on SSRN and collected on the SSRN author page. The earlier open-source corpus, published independently under CC BY 4.0, remains available at the WP-2026 repository.

Publication Types

  • Working paper
  • Legislative discussion draft
  • Assessment
  • Research report
  • Brief
  • Technical memorandum

License

  • Stated on each publication